Last night during the broadcast John Sadak posed the question , what would the 2025 Reds have looked like if they had Suarez in the line up? To be more specific he explained that Suarez hit 49 home runs in 2025, roughly one per series. That peaked my interest. So I went back and looked at all the Reds losses and found the games where a late boost would have given the Reds the edge. If there was a game early in the series where a home run would win them the game then the rest of the series would be ignored as I limited it to one HR added per series.
Criteria (Chart posted below):
The game must be in the 5th inning or later
The spot in the line up must be the DH's spot
If the DH already hit a HR earlier in the game, that game was excluded
The results may be surprising to some, but after suffering through one of the worst offensive season's I've witnessed as a fan, I was not as shocked.
There were 22 instances where the DH spot was up, in the 5th inning or later, where a home run would drastically change the game. 17 of those would be either a HR to take the lead, prevent extras and win, or walk off the game. 5 of them were to tie the game late. For the sake of the study I counted those 5 as a loss. If the Reds did add 22 home runs off the bat of Suarez in 2025 they would have been the best team in baseball with a record of 100-62. Quite the difference from 83-79.
Here is the deep dive into each of those games.
April 1: Rangers win 1-0. In the 7th inning the DH, Lux, came to the plate with 1 on and 1 out. A HR here instead of a ground out gives the Reds a 2-1 lead late.
April 3: Brewers win 1-0. In the 7th inning the DH, Steer, is up with 2 on and 1 out. He fly's out to center. A Suarez bomb makes it 3-1, preventing the Reds from suffering their 3rd straight 1-0 loss.
April 9: Giants win 8-6 in 10 innings. The situation this game is in the 8th inning. The Reds were leading in this game 6-5, but you can never have a big enough lead. Steer struck out in his last AB of the game. The Reds gave up a solo shot in the bottom half of the 8th. If the Reds take a 7-5 lead who knows how it ends, but I'd like to believe it ends in victory.
April 22: Marlins win 4-3. There are 2 spots this game you could look at, I chose the at bat in the 6th. Hays walks in the 6th to put 2 guys on. Only one of those runner would score. This is one of the 5 instances where it would not have given the Reds the win but tied it. Had he homered in the 6th, or 8th for that matter its a 4-4 ball game.
May 6: Braves win 2-1 in 10 innings. Top of the 8th, 1 on no out Stephenson batting. He strikes out. A home run here would have given the Reds a 2-0 lead in a game that went to extras tied at 1.
May 13: White Sox win 5-1 in 10 innings. Gavin Lux steps to the plate with 1 on and no outs down 1-0. He grounded out followed by McLain grounding into a fielder choice cutting down the runner at the plate. A game that went to extras ties at 1 could have been a 2-1 Reds win.
May 20: Pirates win 1-0. Top 7 with Stephenson batting. With a runner on he flies out to end the inning. A HR here gives the Reds a 2-1 lead and yet another win.
May 28: Royals win 3-2. This is another one of the five examples where it would have tied the game. Luz ground out to short, moving Elly who scored two batters later. Turn that ground out into a home run and you have a 3-3 ball game late.
June 2: Brewers win 3-2. Another tie example. Stephenson took his last at bat in the bottom of the 8th down 1. Needless to say a homer here would have went a long way.
June 21: Cardinals win 6-5 in 11. In the top of the 9th in a game the Reds were up a run, Gavin Lux struck out. The bullpen gives up a run in the bottom of the 9th and the game heads to extras.
July 11: Rockies win 3-2. We jump to the bottom of the 8th with the Reds down a run. Lux lines out before the rest of the line up can't produce the tying run.
July 20: Mets win 3-2. This situation Hays steps up with 2 on. He ends up reaching base to load the bases. Followed by Steer getting hit by the pitch to score to tie the game. A 3 run homer in the 8th gives the Reds a 4-2 lead in a game they only surrendered 3 runs.
July 29: Dodgers win 5-4. In a game that was tied at the time, Hays ground out to end the 7th inning. With Elly on base one could assume that a 2 run homer in that situation could have given the Reds the win in this one.
July 31: Braves win 12-11 in 10 innings. Down a run in the 10th with a free runner on 2nd Hays grounds into a fielders choice. It goes with out saying that a home run in the bottom of the 10th would have won that game for the Reds.
August 8: Pirates win 3-2. Reds are leading 2-1 at this point, but an insurance run never hurts. A home run here would have sent the game into extra innings. Not a for sure win, but at least they would have had another inning to work with.
August 16: Brewers win 6-5. In a tie game, bottom of the 9th, Andujar grounds out and the game gets sent to the 10th. Another extra innings game that could have been avoided.
August 20: Angels win 2-1. In a tie game in the 6th, Andujar ground into a fielders choice with two men aboard. The Reds didn't necessarily need the 3 run home run here, but it sure would have helped.
August 22: Diamondback win 6-5 in 11. Have you picked up on the theme that a lot of games the Reds sent to extras could have been won if they had another power bat to utilize. Anyway, in the top of the 11th the Reds fail to score their free runner and inevitably lose in the bottom half.
August 29: Cardinals win 7-5 in 10. Andujar strikes out to end the 8th, stranding two runners in a tie ball game.
September 5: Mets win 5-4. Bases loaded down a run the DH Lux steps to the plate. He grounds out to end the game. A potential 4 runs added with a long ball.
September 8: Padres win 4-3 in 10. Gavin Lux steps to the plate in a 3-3 ball game in the top of the 9th. He grounds out in his last AB of the game. Reds lose by a run in a game that did not need to see the 10th inning.
September 24: Pirates win 4-3 in 11 innings. The Reds are down a run in the 10th with 2 on. Lux hits a sac fly to tie the game. Reds fail to score again and lose by a run. This game the Reds didn't need the HR but a power double off the wall would have worked.
This was a fun deep dive into the hitting struggles of the 2025 squad. Do I think the Reds would actually have won 100 games if they had Suarez in the line up, no I do not. But I would argue that Suarez wins you 6-10 more games. Time will tell this year and so far Suarez has 1 HR in 1 series played. If he can keep that up the Reds will be a scary team with how their pitchers have started the season.
Thanks as always for reading! Who Day & Go Redlegs!
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